1010 aircraft and 67,000 new professionals for African commercial aviation
The strong long-term growth prospects for African commercial aviation are closely linked to the continent's economic growth, which is expected to be 3.1% per year over the next two decades.
Optimism for African aviation. By 2041, the continent's airlines are expected to add 1010 new aircraft to their fleets. This is what Boeing predicts in its recent 2022 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) study on the long-term need for commercial aircraft and aviation services.
The US aircraft manufacturer bases its forecast on the upward trend in African air traffic, which is expected to reach a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%, the third highest among the world's regions.
Rising urbanisation rates, growth in the working age population and the emergence of a middle class with a propensity to travel are among the factors that will contribute to this increase in traffic. Following this logic, African airlines are expected to triple their passenger numbers and more than double their fleet by 2041, Boeing predicts.
Single-aisle aircraft will account for a significant share - about 700 aircraft (70% of deliveries) - of the growing African fleet. In their deployment, the continent's airlines will rely more on the development of the intra-African network, which will experience sustained growth of 6.1% over the next 20 years. However, Africa-Europe traffic will remain the primary source of revenue for African airlines.
Over the period, the estimated demand for aviation personnel will increase to 67,000 new professionals, including 19,000 pilots, while after-sales services such as manufacturing and repair will represent a market of about $80 billion. This will support air transport growth and national economies across the continent, the company says.
Boeing expects initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the Single Market for African Air Transport (SMAAT), which were stalled by the pandemic, to regain their pre-pandemic momentum. And the first signs are already visible. The manufacturer notes that African air traffic, nearly 90% of which is historically international, has recovered at a steady pace in 2022 due to increased vaccination rates and less stringent border policies. Pent-up demand and economic growth driven by rising global commodity prices have allowed African airlines to return to flight operations at 80% of pre-pandemic levels.
