Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Africa: December 2024 to April 2025

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has officially published its Seasonal Climate Watch, detailing expectations for the period from December 2024 through April 2025. According to the latest seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently observed to be in a neutral state. Furthermore, forecasts suggest that this neutral condition is likely to weaken even further in the coming months. Current models and predictions point toward the potential development of a weak La Niña state, which is anticipated to emerge around mid-summer. However, it is important to note that should this event develop, it may only have a significant impact on South Africa’s summer rainfall during the latter parts of the season.

At this time, there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the likelihood of a La Niña event actually occurring. Current forecasts suggest that certain regions, particularly in the north-eastern central and coastal areas of South Africa, may experience above-normal rainfall. Conversely, most areas that typically receive summer rainfall are expected to see below-normal precipitation levels during this forecast period. However, as summer progresses, specifically from February to April 2025, there is a notable increase in the chances of experiencing above-normal rainfall across the summer rainfall regions. This potential shift may indicate a very late influence from the anticipated La Niña event.

In terms of temperature, both minimum and maximum temperatures across South Africa are expected to remain predominantly above-normal throughout the forecast period. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the southern coastal regions of the country are projected to experience below-normal temperatures during the entire summer season. This discrepancy in temperature expectations highlights the variability that can occur within the broader climate patterns affecting the region.