IATA downgrades air traffic forecast after dismal summer
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) downgraded its traffic forecast for 2020 to reflect a weaker-than-expected recovery, as evidenced by a dismal end to the summer travel season in the Northern Hemisphere. IATA now expects full-year 2020 traffic to be down 66% compared to 2019. The previous estimate was for a 63% decline.
August passenger demand continued to be hugely depressed against
normal levels, with revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) down 75.3%compared to August 2019. This was only slightly improved compared to the
79.5% annual contraction in July. Domestic markets continued to
outperform international markets in terms of recovery, although most
remained substantially down on a year ago. August capacity (available
seat kilometers or ASKs) was down 63.8% compared to a year ago, and load
factor plunged 27.2 points to an all-time low for August of 58.5%.
Based on flight data, the recovery in air passenger services was brought to a halt in mid-August by a return of government restrictions in the face of new COVID-19 outbreaks in a number of key markets. Forward bookings for air travel in the fourth quarter show that the recovery since the April low point will continue to falter. Whereas the decline in year-on-year growth of global RPKs was expected to have moderated to -55% by December, a much slower improvement is now expected with the month of December forecast to be down 68% on a year ago.
“August’s disastrous traffic performance puts a cap on the
industry’s worst-ever summer season. International demand recovery is
virtually non-existent and domestic markets in Australia and Japan
actually regressed in the face of new outbreaks and travel restrictions.
A few months ago, we thought that a full-year fall in demand of -63%
compared to 2019 was as bad as it could get. With the dismal peak summer
travel period behind us, we have revised our expectations downward to
-66%,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
August international passenger demand plummeted 88.3% compared to August 2019, mildly improved over the 91.8% decline recorded in July. Capacity sagged 79.5%, and load factor fell 37.0 percentage points to 48.7%.
