Passenger Traffic to reach 52% Pre- COVID-19 era 2021
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has expressed optimism that global passenger traffic would recover to 52 per cent of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019) by 2021.
Also, itsaid by 2022, theglobalpassenger numbers are expected to recover to 88 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels, while itwould climb to105per centof 2019traffic by 2023.
IATA in a statement said that people remainedeagertotravelintheshortand long-term, stressing that to ensure that aviationcouldsustainablydeliveritssocial and economic benefits as it meets this long-term demand, it was critical thatgovernmentsstep-uptheirsupport for more efficient operations and foster an effective energy transition.
According to IATA, by 2030, global passengernumbersareexpectedtohave grown to 5.6 billion, but said this would be 7 per cent below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of two to three years of growth due to COVID-19.
Besides, it said beyond 2030 airtravel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limitedmarketliberalisation, givingaverage annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2 per cent.
IATA’spre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8 per cent. The recovery inpassenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), which is expected togrowby anannualaverageof 3per cent between 2019 and 2039.
Thisisowing totheexpectedstrength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
“I am always optimistic about aviation. We are in the deepest and gravest crisis in our history. But the rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedomtoflyinthemonthsahead. And when that happens, people are going to wanttotravel. Theimmediatechallenge is to reopen borders, eliminate quarantine measures and digitally manage vaccination/testing certificates.
“At the same time, we must assure the world that aviation’s long-term growth prospects are supported with an unwavering commitment to sustainability. Both challenges require governments and industry to work in partnership. Aviation is ready. But I don’t see governments moving fast enough,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director-General.
