Southern Africa’s 2025-2026 Climate Outlook Signals Strategic Opportunity for Sub-Saharan Operators
As the anticipation for late 2025 and early 2026 escalates among adventure seekers and leisure explorers, the latest guidance from the Thirty-First Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-31) is setting the agenda for the region’s upcoming tourism season. For Africa’s dynamic travel industry, this forecast delivers not just weather insights, but actionable intelligence for crafting unforgettable experiences in a landscape of evolving climate realities.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC), comprising 16 diverse member states from Angola to Zimbabwe, is universally recognized as one of the world’s most alluring destinations. Its vast geography covers everything from Namibia’s stark deserts and Botswana’s lush deltas to the Indian Ocean’s island paradises. Understanding SADC’s seasonal pulse is crucial for those shaping safari adventures, cultural journeys, and beach escapes for both domestic and international clientele.
October to December 2025: Rainfall Patterns Promise Vibrancy—and Challenges
For the first half of the rainy season, SARCOF-31 projects normal to above-normal rainfall across much of the SADC region. This is welcome news for those seeking the region’s iconic green scenery and abundant wildlife, as rainfall typically means flourishing habitats and dramatic vistas—ideal for photographic safaris and nature-centric experiences.
However, the forecast also outlines tailored warnings for specific locations. Western Namibia is predicted to see below-normal rainfall, likely resulting in drier landscapes in destinations such as the Skeleton Coast and Kaokoland. For these areas, operators should prepare for limited water-based activities and adjust itineraries to highlight desert-adapted wildlife and unique geological features.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean islands—including the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles—can expect a blend of dry and rainy days, with a leaning toward normal to below-normal rainfall. This mixed outlook should be factored into planning for beach holidays, diving excursions, and cultural tours, ensuring that clients experience the best of both sunshine and seasonal showers.
January to March 2026: Wetter Conditions Shape Wildlife and Access
As the calendar turns to 2026, SARCOF-31 anticipates a shift to normal to above-normal rainfall across most of Southern Africa. For wildlife enthusiasts, this promises abundant waterholes and thriving game populations, particularly in the southwestern SADC corridor, encompassing Namibia, Botswana, and parts of South Africa. While these conditions enhance game viewing, they also bring logistical considerations: muddy roads may challenge access to remote safari lodges and necessitate robust 4x4 transportation planning.
Other regional nuances include normal to below-normal rainfall for Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Tanzania, indicating slightly drier conditions. This may extend the dry season’s appeal for certain activities but also requires careful water resource management for both wildlife and communities.
The Indian Ocean Islands will see a reversal in fortunes, with Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles projected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. In contrast, the Comoros could experience a drier start to the year, informing choices for water-based and eco-adventure offerings.
Temperature Trends: Warmth Dominates, Packing Strategies Evolve
Temperatures are set to remain above long-term averages through the season, save for some central pockets of the region. Clients should be encouraged to pack light, breathable clothing and prioritize hydration, particularly for active adventures and family travel. The prevalence of warm days and balmy nights will enhance the appeal of outdoor dining, stargazing, and evening cultural performances, adding distinctive value to itineraries.
Key Climate Drivers: La Niña and Indian Ocean Dipole Shape the Season
This year’s outlook is influenced by a projected transition to a weak La Niña phase in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, historically linked to wetter conditions across much of Southern Africa. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to move into a negative phase before returning to neutral, a pattern that typically amplifies rainfall in the region. These climate drivers underscore the importance of flexible trip planning and real-time weather monitoring for everyone in the sector.
Strategic Takeaways for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Tourism Professionals
The SARCOF-31 forecast empowers Africa’s travel sector to proactively adapt and excel. Safaris can be timed to coincide with peak wildlife activity near replenished water sources. Beach and island getaways can be marketed with clear communication around seasonal rainfall, ensuring guest expectations align with local realities. For road trips and overland adventures, the emphasis should be on resilience—offering well-equipped vehicles and backup plans for weather-related disruptions.
Infrastructure providers and accommodation partners have a window to invest in flood mitigation, water management, and guest comfort strategies. This includes everything from improved drainage around lodges to innovative guest experiences that celebrate the rain—such as guided storm-watching or wellness retreats built around the region’s lush, green season.
Perhaps most importantly, the climate outlook is a call to action for the sector to deepen its resilience, sustainability, and community partnerships. By anticipating seasonal shifts and actively engaging with local weather services, tourism professionals can safeguard both guest experience and operational continuity.
For those shaping Africa’s travel future, the SARCOF-31 guidance is a strategic asset—enabling the region to not only weather the coming season but to transform its rich diversity of landscapes and cultures into a competitive, world-leading tourism experience.
